Where Are We?

 

ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2022

Elections stands as the most important mechanism for any democracy as it gives the chance to the people of the country to elect their representative in the government, India being world’s largest democracy was never an exception to it. A lot of drama takes around the elections in India whether they may be Lok sabha general elections or large states assembly elections or small states assembly elections because every party consider every election as mandate of the people and they say the mood of the nation. For a national party which wants to form a government at the center will always look to hold even a small state.

The year 2022 will be a crucial year in the Indian politics as seven states were going into the elections-Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh. More than anyone else this year will be most important to BJP since its been three years into the NDA-2 government and Modi’s second tenure as the Prime Minister of India, BJP and its alliances in NDA were very curious to know the mood of the nation and their opinion about their government. To make things hotter out of the seven states which were going to elections in 2022, BJP holds six states except Punjab so it is key to BJP to retain all those states in the upcoming elections and show their opponents that still they are very much popular among the masses of the nation. The situation for congress party which is still the main competitor of BJP is completely contrast to that of the BJP since it is holding only one state out of seven states and will reluctantly wanting to win in at least two more states like Manipur and Goa by retaining the Punjab to just say BJP that still they are popular and they their own percentage of vote share in the nation. These election also stand very important to the parties like Aam Aadmi(AAP),Trinamool Congress(AITMC) which are desperately wanting to expand their presence in one more state other than the states they are ruling at present and to send the strong signals to Indian National congress(INC) and BJP that they are picking up pace for the most important 2024 elections. These elections also very much important in the perspective of 2024 elections as this seven states together give 132 MP’s to the LokSabha which is more than 20% of the total seats. Out of these 132 BJP is presently holding 71 where as INC is holding just 10. So BJP which wants to increase this number further and would like to win this elections to have a strong hold on them until the 2024 where as INC will be trying to win some confidence by winning some more states out of these seven going into 2024 elections.

The elections for the five out of seven states will be starting from the February 10 in a phase wise manner and the results will be out on March 10. Those five states are Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarkhand, Manipur, Goa. Looking into further deeper into each state:

1) Uttar Pradesh: It has the biggest state assembly in India with 403 seats. It is also the state with maximum number of loksabha MP seats with a figure of 80. It is always very important to any party to hold control over the UP. At present BJP is ruling in the UP, the NDA alliance of UP consisting of BJP, Apna Dal(sonelal)(ADAL), Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party(SBSP) has won a total of 325 seats out of 403 leading to land sliding victory of NDA In 2017 elections where as Samajwadi party(SP) which has just won 47 seats is the second largest party in the state. These elections in 2022 are very much important to the present CM of the state Yogi Adityanath as this is the first time BJP’s NDA is going into elections under his leadership since back in 2017 BJP lead NDA went into elections just by trusting the brand name of Narendra Modi without naming its chief ministerial candidate and it is only after the huge win, the NDA named Yogi as their chief minister. So for yogi who is also being considered as the next prime ministerial candidate winning these elections is very much important whereas the next prime contender SP will be trying to find its lost glory in 2017 elections. Congress is also trying for its rejuvenation under the new leadership of Priyanka Gandhi.

The alliances that are being formed just before the elections are making the things more interesting. BJP alongside Apna Dal and Nishad party is forming the NDA where as  SP giving importance to the caste politics is forming the alliance with the small parties like Pragathisheel Samajwadi Party (lohiya), Mahan Dal Party, Apna Dal(kamerawadi), Rashtriya Lok dal(RLD),SBSP and some other small parties and is making sure that it can pull as many as possible non-yadav OBC votes from the BJP and INC, BSP are going into the elections without any alliance.

The main positives for the BJP will be its success in rejuvenating the temples of Ayodya and Kasi vishwanath. The BJP along with Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh(RSS) and Vishwa Hindu Parishad(VHP) always had a long term objective of rejunevating and reconstructing the temples of Ayodya, Varanasi, Mathura. It is believed that Babri Masjid, Gyanvapi Masjid and Shahi idgah masjid are constructed by destroying the Ayodya ram mandir, Kasi Vishwanath mandir and Mathura Sri Krishna mandir respectively by the mughal rulers and BJP said that they will rejuvenate all these temple if they come to power and they went into the 2014 general elections with same mandate and so as into the 2017 UP state assembly elections, since two out of three temples are located in UP- Ayodya ram mandir in Ayodya and Kasi Viswanath Mandir in Varanasi. In 2019 Supreme court of India gave its verdict in the Ayodya ram mandir and babri masjid case saying that there were archaeological proofs saying that there were remains of some other construction under the babri masjid so the five judge bench with a unanimous majority came to a conclusion that the babri masjid is constructed by destroying some other construction and said that the disputed land of 2.77 acres to be handed over to  Ayodya Ram Mandir Trust(to be created by the government of India) and ordered the government to give a separate land of five acres to the other party in the case i.e., Uttar Pradesh central sunni Waqf board. Though BJP is not directly involved in the proceedings of the court some of its main leaders like Subramanian swami played a crucial role in taking the case forward and made sure that the verdict comes in their way by providing substantial proofs to the government so it can be seen as huge moral win to the BJP and just with in a month after the ayodya verdict given by the SC another important case of Kasi Vishwanath Mandir and Gyanvapi Masjid is reopened and again some key leaders and lawyers of BJP are making the case to move faster and are making sure that they get permission to offer their prayers to Vishwanath in Gyanvapi Masjid which they believe is the original location of the temple. So with rejuvenation of these two temples in UP the core Hindu votes will stay with the BJP in 2022 elections. Alongside these some development projects like construction of express ways like purvanchal express way will help BJP to gain some of the votes of the working class.

On the contrary the rise in unemployment, under development in many parts of the state and deteriorating lives of the BPL population will be the negatives to the BJP going into the elections. These is the same point on which the major opposition UPA consisting of INC and SP is concentrating on and making sure that it can win the votes of these worst effected voters during the Yogi government and trying to remain as the voice of these voters. One more major set back for the BJP will be the Lakhimpur kheri violence that took place during the farmers protest in the Banbirpur village of lakhimpur kheri district in UP where the protests are attacked by the vehicle-ramming attack and mob lyncing. A case was filed in the court against the union minister Ajay Mishra Teni who is present minister of state in ministry of home affairs since the cars that are involved in the incident are owned by the minister himself. Opposition slammed BJP and its leaders after the incident by calling it as not less than a ‘terror attack’. So after the incident many people especially some farmers became intolerant with this type of goondaist politics and are wanting a new government in 2022 and seeing this important changes, after the announcement of the election dates many of the key BJP members who hold major portion of non-Yadav OBC votes like swami Prasad mourya, Dharam Singh Saini, Dara singh Chauhan have been defected to SP which is another major setback to the BJP going into the elections.

So as of now the elections in UP are equally poised to both the major alliances NDA and UPA. Winning the elections in 2022 is not going to be that easy for both the sides and definitely BJP will not see that huge victory which it has seen in the 2017 elections. The better tactician among the two sides will have upper hand in the elections.

2)Punjab: It is the second largest state among the five states that are going for the election in February 2022. Punjab assembly has a total of 117 assembly seats and the magic figure to form the government in the state is 59 and Punjab sends a total of 13 MP’s to the loksabha. In the 2017 elections INC emerged as the single largest party by winning the 77 seats out of 117 and the formed the government with captain Amarinder singh as their chief minister and AAP emerged as the opposition by winning the 20 seats out of 117 seats where as the the then ruling alliance of NDA consisting of Shiromani Akali Dal and BJP has lost the elections by winning just 18 seats which went into the elections under the leadership of the Prakash Singh Badal. 2017 elections have been the dream elections for AAP as it is for the first time AAP has won prominent share of seats in a state assembly other than Delhi NCT.

After the elections lot of political changes have been taken place Punjab. The political crisis in the Punjab has began when the chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh has resigned to the INC due to the differences raised between him and some of the other INC leaders of the Punjab like charanjit singh channi. Though the congress high command didn’t accepted the resignation and settled dispute between the leaders the rift continued among the leaders and when in 2021 Navjot Singh Sidhu has appointed as the president of Punjab Congress the rift has become even more among the leaders since Captain Singh always opposed Navjot as the president of the party. But when the decision of making Navjot as the president of Punjab Congress was made final, Captain Amarinder has resigned to his chief minister post and also to the primary membership of the Congress party. After a lot of drama the Congress high command has accepted the resignation of the Captain and appointed Charanjit Singh Channi as the next chief Minister of the Punjab State. On the other side Captain Amarinder after coming out of the Congress Party has formed his own party-Punjab Lok Congress(PLC) and said that his party will contest the elections. Similarly NDA alliance also saw a lot of changes with SAD leaving the alliance after staying in the NDA alliance for almost two decades due to the three farm laws brought by the NDA government. SAD strongly opposed the three farm laws of the NDA government and left the alliance leaving BJP alone in the Punjab.

Now as the elections dates announced all  the parties announced their alliances with which they are going into the state elections 2022. Captain Amarinder’s PLC has joined the BJP in the NDA alliance and Shiromani Lok Dal (samyukt)(SLD) has also joined the NDA and out of 147 seats BJP is contesting in 65 seats and captain’s PLC is contesting in 35 seats and SLD is contesting in 15 seats . SAD which came out of NDA alliance is allying with Mayawati’s BSP in the upcoming elections and out of 117 seats SAD is contesting in 97 seats and BSP is contesting in 20 seats. INC is going into elections without any alliance and it is contesting in all the 17 seats and AAP is also going into election without any alliance and it is also contesting in all the 17 seats.

Due to the three farm laws passed by the NDA government the Punjab farmers are worst hit and they were on the roads for almost two years protesting for the repealing of three farm laws passed by the government. So many farmers lost their lives during the protests and some farmers committed suicides demanding the repealing of three farm laws by the central government. This made the position of BJP worst off in Punjab with farmers turning against them and lost its most important ally SAD in the state. Though the central government repealed the three farm laws the BJP didn’t gain the trust of the voters. But the big positive for the  BJP will be its alliance with Captain Amarinder Singh’s PLC since Captain is the main leader of the state and he single handedly won the elections for INC in 2017 so BJP is expecting that the vote share that is brought by the captain will be helping them in the elections. On the contrary the positions of other important parties like INC,AAP,SAD is different though they have their own percentage of vote share in the state since they were contesting in the elections individually their vote shares will not be alone enough to form the government with Captain going out of the INC he has taken a good share of INC votes to NDA alliance and INC under the leadership of the charanjit singh channi and Navjot Singh is looking weaker as Navjot singh have some anti nation allegations  against him, where as SAD has its own vote share and is in alliance with BSP which too have little vote share, but it is difficult to say that these vote share will be well enough to form a government in  the state and the situation of AAP is also similar to that of SAD. One of the main drawbacks for the other parties is their inability in leading the farmers protest, that is during the two years of farmers protest over the three farm laws no party has always been with the farmers and lead the protests, so no party will gain anything from the farmers protest as no one was completely active and consistent in protesting against the government. So though the farmers protest stands as the major disadvantage to the BJP’s NDA it is not an advantage to any party and all those rebellion votes might be shared among all the other parties creating even more mess in the state after the elections. As of now congress may retain the Punjab state but with a less majority but we can never completely rule out NDA,AAP and SAD.

3)UTTARAKHAND: It is another important state in the Hindi heartland, being called as the ‘DEV BHOOMI’ or ‘THE LAND OF LORDS’ it is  one of the important state in the religious context. The most important Hindu shrines generally called as the CHARDHAM-Gangotri, Yamunotri, Kedarnath and Badrinath are located in these state. Uttarakhand assembly has a total of 70 seats out of which presently BJP is holding 57 seats, INC is holding 11 seats and Independents are holding two seats. In 2017 state elections BJP had a land sliding victory in Uttarakhand by winning 57 out of 70 seats. Uttarakhand has a very less importance when it comes to loksabha as it sends only five members to the loksabha. BJP has won the 2017 elections under the leadership of the Trivendar Singh Rawat and he was appointed as the CM of the state after the election.

A lot of disturbances have occurred in the government when Trivendar singh has passed the CHARDHAM devasthanam management act, 2019. This act provides for the establishment of a board headed by the Chief Minister and this act says that around 53 temples in the Uttarakhand along with CHARDHAM shrines will be administered and managed by the board which is established by this act. This lead to the opposition from the priests and religious heads of the temple saying that the state shall not have any control over the temples and they should be remained outside the purview of the state government and further they also went to court saying that the board established by the government is not only looking at the administrative affairs of the temples but they are also involving in the financial matters of the temple of which they have no right. On all these grounds the act has been severely opposed since the day it is enacted. The opposition went to peaks in the beginning of the 2021 such that the high command of the BJP has involved into this issue and replaced the chief minister Trivendar singh with Tirat Singh Rawat on 10 March, 2021. The new CM Tirat Rawat has appointed a special committee to look into the issue but the situations never cooled down and they become still hotter and again the BJP replaced the CM Tirat Singh Rawat with Pushkar Singh Dhami on 14 July,2021. He also appointed a committee to look into the issue and asked for its recommendations and finally towards the end of the 2021 that is just before the few months of elections the Pushakar Singh’s government has withdrawn the CHARDHAM devastanam management act,2019 and abolished the board which is formed after the act is enacted. So Uttarkahnd as seen three CM’s in a span of four months.

Again in 2022 elections also BJP is going into the elections without any alliance in Uttarakhand and similarly INC and AAP are also going into the elections without any pre-poll alliance, Whereas SP and BSP have formed an alliance going into the elections. With all the mess created by the CHARDHAM act the popularity of BJP has been reduced in the state and many core Hindu voters are also fed-up with the actions of the present BJP government so this time win for BJP in the Uttarakhand is not going to be that easy as it was in the 2017 elections. Similarly other parties also haven’t done much to attract the core Hindu voters, Though the BJP’s government is very much unstable in the last one year its stand on ‘Hindutva’ will bring it the core Hindu votes of Uttarakhand. So as of now there were high chances of BJP retaining the Uttarakhand.

4)Manipur: Manipur is one of the key east Indian state which consists a total of 60 seats in its assembly and the magic figure to form the government is 31. At present NDA alliance of BJP, National People’s Front(NPF), National People’s Party(NPP) and Lok Jana shakti has formed the government by winning a total of 31 seats out of which BJP has won 21 and NPF has won 4 and NPP has won  and Lok Janashakti has won 1 seat where as INC emerged as the single largest party in the state by winning 28 seats out of 60 seats but it was unable to form the government as it has left with no major party to form an alliance. The Present Chief Minister of the state is Nongthombam Biren Singh.

As there is under a month left for the commencement of the elections in the state BJP has announced that it will go into the elections without any alliance as parties like NPF and NPP have pulled out of NDA alliance before the elections and NPP and NPF have said that they will go the elections individually whereas INC as said that they are forming an alliance with Nationalist Congress Party going into the elections.

The opposition to the BJP has increased with passage of the citizenship Ammendment Act (CAA), 2016. The CAA and National Register for citizens (NRC) will definitely have an impact on the BJP vote share in the state in the 2022 elections and this will help the congress to gain those extra three seats which they were short off in the previous elections if they succeed in attracting the votes that are against to BJP. So with NPP and NPF leaving the NDA it is very much difficult for BJP to retain the Manipur and Manipur will be that one extra state which congress is looking for restoring some energy in the party and its leaders.

5)GOA: Goa, the smallest state in India has a total of 40 seats in its assembly and the magic figure to form the government is 21. In 2017 elections NDA consisting of BJP, Goa Forward Party(GFP), Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party(MGP) has formed the government by winning 23 seats out of 40 seats and out of which BJP has won 17 seats, GFP has won 3 seats, MGP has won the 3 seats whereas congress emerged as the second largest party by winning 17 seats.

Now going into 2022 elections GFP and MGP have left the NDA and joined the alliance with INC and All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC) respectively. This makes the life of BJP so hard and gives congress a good chance to form a government this time. AAP is contesting in the elections with an alliance with another small regional party and the alliance of Shiv Sena and NCP is also contesting in the elections.

BJP in the central government has released a total of 300crores funds for the celebration of Goa Liberation Day in 2021. This made people of Goa to look at BJP and BJP is expecting that it can win the elections under the leadership of the Pramod Sawant who is also the present CM of the Goa where has the position of the congress become stronger compared to the 2017 elections with GFP joining it. Since the state is very small and magic figure being 21 even a party with single seat will also matter a lot in states like Goa so other alliances of AAP, AITMC and Shiv Sena also have their role to play in forming the government by winning 2-3 seats. So as of now BJP has a strong chance of retaining the Goa with the slightest majority.

So these are the different scenarios in different states that are going to the elections in February and BJP will be looking to at least retain the four states in which presently it is ruling whereas INC will be trying to at least two more states other than Punjab in order to fill the energy into the party before going into the 2024 general elections. SP will be trying to find its lost glory and win the UP elections. AAP is contesting in three out of five states and Aravind Kejriwal will be looking at least have another state with him in which he can have police power to use because Delhi being the NCT, Aravind kejriwal will not have police power in his hands as in NCT the state police will be under the control of the central government. Similarly Mamata Benarjee’s AITMC is also looking for another state to hold and say to BJP that they are having a multi-state presence. So on the political front these elections for state assemblies in 2022 can be called as the mini general elections.