Where Are We?

 

Modi and Non-BJP CM’s

 

 

With about two years left to the 2024 general elections it will be interesting to know about the major contenders for the prime ministership in 2024. Going with the recent developments and the age old traditions in the Indian politics, we can see three major politicians who are very much ahead in that race and they are Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi and Aravind Kejriwal. Apart from them there are some other politicians like Mamata Banerjee, K Chandra Sekhar rao, N Chandra babu naidu  who are seeing themselves as the prime ministerial candidates for the upcoming elections by trying to form a Third front but it will be too much to expect a lot from them. If the present situation is seen in a broader perspective then the 2024 elections are nothing but the Modi vs Non-BJP CM’s excluding Rahul Gandhi.

Out of 30 CM’s in India (including CM’s of Delhi and Puducherry) 18 CM’s belong to the BJP and it’s grand alliance NDA where as INC has only two CM’s with absolute majority in their states i.e., in Rajasthan and chhattisgarh and similarly INC has formed coalition governments in three states i.e., in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu under the grand alliance of UPA showing the miserable condition of the grand old party of the India. Another party which is having a multi state presence and having a national wide recognition is Aam Aadmi Party(AAP), it has two CM’s one being Aravind kejriwal of delhi and the other is recently elected Bhagawant mann of Punjab. Out of 30,25 are being held by the National Parties with multi state presence and in 5 states there are CM’s belonging to the regional parties which are Andhra Pradesh(YSRCP), Telengana(TRS), Kerela(CPI(M)), Odisha(BJD),West Bengal (TMC), Though CPI(M) and TMC are national parties, since their governments were  limited to just one state they are being considered as the regional parties.

Now among all the non-BJP CM’s in India Aravind Kejriwal will be the strongest considering the performance of his party and the growing popularity of his party’s ideology in the recent past and the recently concluded Punjab elections where his party has out done ruling congress shows his growing popularity in the nation apart from the Delhi. With that win in the Punjab for the first time he got the control over state police and public order of a particular state  which he does not have in Delhi and it will be interesting to see how wisely he uses them. Due to all this he and his party now are being considered as one of the strongest party going into the 2024 elections though it is not that easy to him to get the majority in the lower house of the parliament he can take some valuable percentage of votes away from the ruling NDA in the Hindi heart land. The key behind the success of the kejriwal will be his policies and his constructive criticism against the BJP but still he is lagging in attracting the massive Hindu vote share in the Hindi heart land and if he find his ways to attract them then definitely he is going to have a good prospects in the upcoming elections.

Mamata banerjee is the another strongest leader going to contest in the 2024 elections and she now is the CM of the West Bengal   and her strength is her strong Muslim vote base in the west Bengal and she is also very much good in attracting the Muslim votes in the different regions of India. Being the leader of national party she has been always active in criticizing the government and their policies but in a destructive way which is making her unpopular in Hindu masses and that is pulling her back in the race. During the 2019 elections she along with other potential regional leaders like KCR of Telangana, Chandra Babu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh and Kejriwal tried to form a third front but the internal clashes over the issue of leader of the front and some other indifferences between them made that alliance to break. But now it is the time to Mamata to again form an alliance with unity and a clear ideology in order to stand still against the BJP wave and that is the only option left with her to go into the masses of the India and take away an important percentage of vote share away from the BJP and make them to fall short of majority. Naveen Patnaik from Odisha is also a non-BJP CM but a very strong leader in Odisha and electing as the CM for the five consecutive terms shows his popularity in the Odisha, he was earlier in the alliance with BJP but came out of alliance in 2009. Having such a huge popularity in Odisha he always kept himself away from the national politics and confined himself only to the state and we can’t expect him to make an entry into the national politics in 2024 at the of 76.

Apart from all the above mentioned non-BJP CM’s and their parties INC and its UPA will always be the key competitors in the general elections. Though at present INC was confined to 5 states it always has its share of votes in the masses but the recent loss in the five state elections and losing their Punjab seat to the AAP will definitely have demoralized the party and its members. So now it is very much important to the party to change its age old ideology and a complete change in the leadership at the top level and it is also very much important to congress party to reconstruct the party from the grass root level and to construct in a structured manner by giving chances to the youth. If the party doesn’t go for a reconstruction then it will be really difficult for them in the upcoming elections and they may even lose their opposition position in the lower house to the other parties like AAP, TMC. 

This is the scenario of the current Indian politics where there is no strong opposition to oppose the bulldozing BJP. Firstly it’s the time to all the political parties to get together and form a strong ideological alliances and give a major importance to the constructive criticism of the government. Another important thing which all the non-BJP parties should think about is the ways to attract the Hindu votes because BJP’s success mantra in winning every state is getting the 60% of the total Hindu votes of that sate and they never cared about the Muslim votes and many BJP leaders have openly said that they can win any election only with the help of Hindu votes and they do not require any Muslim vote to get into the power and they have proved that in the recently conclude five state elections and many elections prior to it. So with this it is clear that BJP’s strength is HINDU votes so to defeat them any party should take away at least 15% of Hindu votes away from BJP and make sure that Muslims in that state will vote to their party. To do all this for any political party a lot of planning and execution is required and until or unless parties do that there will be no stopping to the      BJP as BJP have mastered in attracting the Hindu votes all over the country with their idea of ‘rejuvenating the Hindutva’ from past ten years.